By Kolby LaMarche
City officials presented a sobering initial outlook for Burlington’s Fiscal Year 2027 General Fund budget during a Ward 3 Neighborhood Planning Assembly meeting yesterday, reiterating a projection of a significant shortfall of $10 to $12 million that could force spending cuts, new revenue sources, or property tax increases.
The presentation, delivered to residents at the monthly NPA gathering, highlighted rising personnel and operating costs on one side and stagnant or declining revenues on the other.
On the expense side, the city is building from its FY26 personnel budget with several mandated or anticipated increases. This includes adding two new firefighters as required by the contract with the Burlington Firefighters Association (BFFA).
Cost-of-living adjustments, increases, are factored in at 7% for firefighters, 4.75% for police officers under the Burlington Police Officers Association (BPOA), and a conservative estimate for AFSCME union employees whose negotiations begin this month.
Non-union staff adjustments follow recent practice by aligning more with the AFSCME figure, the City says.
Additional personnel pressures come from annual step increases for eligible employees, a 10% projected rise in employer healthcare contributions, 5% increases in retirement and workers’ compensation costs, and a 3% inflation adjustment for most non-personnel operating expenses.
One notable operating addition: funds to purchase nine urgently needed vehicles, including six for police and fire departments and three for parks.
Officials noted that since 2013, the city has deferred vehicle and equipment replacements to balance budgets, despite a 2020 fleet committee recommendation of $2.7 million annually for sustainable replacements.
The current backlog, they said, is “no longer sustainable” for first responders.
Revenue projections paint a bleak picture too. Property taxes, derived from the grand list, account for about half of General Fund income.
Average annual grand list growth has been just 1.05% since 2016, but FY27 expectations are flat or negative due to the elimination of the business personal property tax and three large Waterfront Tax Increment Financing (TIF) parcels continuing to divert taxes away from the municipal fund.
Compounding that issue, FY26 relied on approximately $4 million in one-time or historically unreliable revenues no longer available for FY27.
This includes $1.2 million in federal ARPA funds used for police and fire salaries, $650,000 from accelerated collections of delinquent taxes and gross receipts, and a $1.3 million downward revision of penalties, interest, and financial services fees that have consistently fallen short of budgeted amounts in recent years.
“Without new sources of revenue or equivalent expense reductions, this creates a substantial hole,” the city stated in their presentation.
The resulting gap—estimated before at $10-12 million—continues a pattern of structural deficits seen in prior years, though city leaders say they have worked to address them through efficiencies and “tough decisions”.
Mayor Emma Mulvaney-Stanak’s administration has signaled that closing the gap will require collaboration across departments and possibly voter input on tax-related measures, as seen in recent budget cycles.
As Burlington heads into budget season, the FY27 challenge serves as a reminder of the city’s longstanding fiscal pressures: rising costs for expanded essential services, limited grand list growth constrained by TIF districts and state policies, and the – long talked – phasing out of temporary pandemic-era funds.
More precise numbers are expected after department budget submissions and finalization of benefit costs, but the presentation is close to the mark. The full proposed budget will go through public hearings and City Council review before potential voter approval on Town Meeting Day in March.
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